ISRAEL WAR ROOM
ISRAEL WAR ROOM
Spotlight: Snapback Sanctions
- Over the weekend, the German Chancellor announced that this week, the UN Security Council would pursue snapback sanctions against Iran.
- This would “snap-back,” or reimpose, those sanctions associated with a half-dozen UN security Council Resolutions going back to 2006.
- This process was developed as part of the JCPOA. However, the “sunset” on the above mechanism concludes at the end of this year.
- So, if the UN is going to reimpose these sanctions through this mechanism, that must occur before 2026.
- Snapback process:
- A JCPOA-party country formally claims Iran has violated the agreement.
- Within 30 days, the UN Security Council must adopt a resolution to ignore the complaint.
- Failure to adopt such a resolution, which like all UNSC resolutions can be vetoed by any permanent member (e.g. the U.S.) results in the reimposition of sanctions.
Top Line Information
- The UNSC may take up snapback sanctions this week. Tehran has threatened to respond.
- The IDF struck Syrian tanks in southern Syria as they approached a village where Druze villagers had been fighting Bedouin tribes.
- Israel has committed to keeping southern Syria free of hostile forces and (now) has good relations with many local Druze communities in southern Syria.
Iran
- Iran has engaged in infrastructure efforts (building roads, etc) at Fordow. Experts believe this is that Iran can inspect the damage from the attack.
- The seriousness of nuclear negotiations continues to ebb and flow, with news coming those interested in negotiating are prevailing over those that are not, but Tehran’s fundamental position – that enriching uranium is its sovereign right – has not changed.
Iran has said they will cooperate with IAEA inspectors, but it is highly unlikely Tehran will allow the IAEA to enter sensitive locations (e.g. Fordow).
Gaza
- We continue to be perpetually one or two weeks away from a hostage deal according to various leaders, including Pres. Trump.
- The sticking point seems to be that Israel does not want Hamas to reconstitute and rearm, and Hamas wants to. As a result the negotiations are over the redeployment of troops in the Strip. On Monday mid-morning, the Israelis provided another proposed map to intermediaries.
- The IDF eliminated 250 terrorist targets in Gaza in recent days.
- These included targeted assassinations, direct confrontations with located terrorists, and the destruction of terrorist infrastructure.
- PA President Mahmoud Abbas (currently in the 20th year of his 4-year term) has called on Hamas to release the hostages, disarm and turn Gaza over to the PA.
- Abbas is only saying this in order to give himself an opportunity – as he sees it – to expand his power.
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